Glasgow East byelection explained

Why is the Glasgow East byelection being held?
The Glasgow East byelection on July 24 2008 is being held following the retirement of Labour MP David Marshall on health grounds. It is the fourth byelection to be called in less than two months but is billed as one of the most important in decades.

Why is this contest so important?
The contest is being viewed as a critical test of Gordon Brown's leadership. The party currently has a 13,507 majority so, in theory at least, should easily hold on to Glasgow East.

But Scotland - once considered "home turf" for Labour - is now being governed by a nationalist administration, and the SNP leader, Alex Salmond, is proving a popular first minister. The SNP insists it has a realistic chance of gaining the seat.

It is widely believed the prime minister would be unable to recover from such a devastating setback and would be forced to quit as Labour leader and prime minister before party conference season begins in September.

How likely is it that Labour will lose the seat?
Glasgow East is Labour's eighth safest seat in Scotland and 25th safest in Britain. The SNP would need a swing of 22% to unseat Labour, but given the current climate, anything is possible.

The SNP already holds five of Glasgow's 17 seats in the Scottish parliament.

And even finding a candidate to contest the seat for Labour proved problematic after local councilor, George Ryan, pulled out just hours before the selection process citing family reasons.

Several others declined the opportunity to stand.

To compound Gordon Brown's difficulties, the Scottish Labour party is currently without a leader due to the resignation last month of Wendy Alexander over financial irregularities in the funding of her leadership campaign.

How is Labour faring generally?
The most recent UK-wide ICM poll for the Guardian put Labour 20 points behind the Tories. The results of the May local elections were Labour's worst since 1968, and in the recent byelection in Henley, Labour not only lost its deposit, winning less than 5% of the vote, but it was pushed into fifth place behind the Greens and the British National party.

What else should I know about Glasgow East?
The Glasgow East constituency was created following boundary changes in 2005, but was also held by Labour in its previous incarnations. Glasgow East, a predominantly Catholic area, is one of the poorest and most unhealthy constituencies in Britain.

It holds the most voters on incapacity benefit or disability allowance, and the fewest with higher education qualifications. Glasgow East hosts the highest proportion of single-parent households, with one of the highest levels of social rented housing in Britain.

Class A drugs have been a serious blight in the area for many years. It was the place where former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith had an epiphany after visiting the Easterhouse council estate in the constituency and was sufficiently moved to set up his Centre for Social Justice thinktank, which now influences Tory social policy.

See the full article at The Guardian